Charlie Munger on the Psychology of Human Misjudgment (Part 1)

Speech at Harvard University, estimated date: June 1995

Transcription, comments [in brackets] and minor editing by Whitney Tilson

Moderator:

...and they discovered extreme, obvious irrationality in many areas of the economy that they looked at. And they were a little bit troubled because nothing that they had learned in graduate school explained these patterns. Now I would hope that Mr. Munger spends a little bit more time around graduate schools today, because we've gotten now where he was 30 years ago, and we are trying to explain those patterns, and some of the people who are doing that will be speaking with you today.

So I think he thinks of his specialty as the Psychology of Human Misjudgment, and part of this human misjudgment, of course, comes from worrying about the types of fads and social pressures that Henry Kaufman talked to us about. I think it's significant that Berkshire Hathaway is not headquartered in New York, or even in Los Angeles or San Francisco, but rather in the heart of the country in Nebraska.

When he referred to this problem of human misjudgment, he identified two significant problems, and I'm sure that there are many more, but when he said, "By not relying on this, and not understanding this, it was costing me a lot of money," and I presume that some of you are here in the theory that maybe it's costing you even a somewhat lesser amount of money. And the second point that Mr. Munger made was it was reducing...not understanding human misjudgment was reducing my ability to help everything I loved. Well I hope he loves you, and I'm sure he'll help you. Thank you. [Applause]

Munger:

Although I am very interested in the subject of human misjudgment -- and lord knows I've created a good bit of it -- I don't think I've created my full statistical share, and I think that one of the reasons was I tried to do something about this terrible ignorance I left the Harvard Law School with.

When I saw this patterned ! irrationality, which was so extreme, and I had no theory or anything to deal with it, but I could see that it was extreme, and I could see that it was patterned, I just started to create my own system of psychology, partly by casual reading, but largely from personal experience, and I used that pattern to help me get through life. Fairly late in life I stumbled into this book, Influence, by a psychologist named Bob Cialdini, who became a super-tenured hotshot on a 2,000-person faculty at a very young age. And he wrote this book, which has now sold 300-odd thousand copies, which is remarkable for somebody. Well, it's an academic book aimed at a popular audience that filled in a lot of holes in my crude system. In those holes it filled in, I thought I had a system that was a good-working tool, and I'd like to share that one with you.

And I came here because behavioral economics. How could economics not be behavioral? If it isn't behavioral, what the hell is it? And I think it's fairly clear that all reality has to respect all other reality. If you come to inconsistencies, they have to be resolved, and so if

there's anything valid in psychology, economics has to recognize it, and vice versa. So I think the people that are working on this fringe between economics and psychology are absolutely right to be

there, and I think there's been plenty wrong over the years.

Well let me romp through as much of this list as I have time to get through:

24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment.

1. First: Under-recognition of the power of what psychologists call 'reinforcement' and economists call 'incentives.'

Well you can say, "Everybody knows that." Well I think I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther.

One of my favorite cases about the power of incentives is the Fede! ral Expre! ss case. The heart and soul of the integrity of the system is that all the packages have to be shifted rapidly in one central location each night. And the system has no integrity if the whole shift can't be done fast. And Federal Express had one hell of a time getting the thing to work. And they tried moral suasion, they tried everything in the world, and finally somebody got the happy thought that they were paying the night shift by the hour, and that maybe if they paid them by the shift, the system would work better. And lo and behold, that solution worked.

Early in the history of Xerox, Joe Wilson, who was then in the government, had to go back to Xerox because he couldn't understand how their better, new machine was selling so poorly in relation to their older and inferior machine. Of course when he got there he found out that the commission arrangement with the salesmen gave a tremendous incentive to the inferior machine.

And here at Harvard, in the shadow of B.F. Skinner -- there was a man who really was into reinforcement as a powerful thought, and, you know, Skinner's lost his reputation in a lot of places, but if you were to analyze the entire history of experimental science at Harvard, he'd be in the top handful. His experiments were very ingenious, the results were counter- intuitive, and they were important. It is not given to experimental science to do better. What gummed up Skinner's reputation is that he developed a case of what I always call man-with-a-hammer syndrome: to the man with a hammer, every problem tends to look pretty much like a nail. And Skinner had one of the more extreme cases in the history of Academia, and this syndrome doesn't exempt bright people. It's just a man with a hammer...and Skinner is an extreme example of that. And later, as I go down my list, let's go back and try and figure out why people, like Skinner, get man-with-a-hammer syndrome.

Incidentally, when I was at the Harvard Law School there was a professor, naturally at Yal! e, who wa! s derisively discussed at Harvard, and they used to say, "Poor old Blanchard. He thinks declaratory judgments will cure cancer." And that's the way Skinner got. And not only that, he was literary, and he scorned opponents who had any different way of thinking or thought anything else was important. This is not a way to make a lasting reputation if the other people turn out to also be doing something important.

2. My second factor is simple psychological denial.

This first really hit me between the eyes when a friend of our family had a super-athlete, super-student son who flew off a carrier in the north Atlantic and never came back, and his mother, who was a very sane woman, just never believed that he was dead. And, of course, if you turn on the television, you'll find the mothers of the most obvious criminals that man could ever diagnose, and they all think their sons are innocent. That's simple psychological denial. The reality is too painful to bear, so you just distort it until it's bearable. We all do that to some extent, and it's a common psychological misjudgment that causes terrible problems.

3. Third: incentive-cause bias, both in one's own mind and that of ones trusted advisor, where it creates what economists call 'agency costs.'

Here, my early experience was a doctor who sent bushel baskets full of normal gall bladders down to the pathology lab in the leading hospital in Lincoln, Nebraska. And with that quality control for which community hospitals are famous, about five years after he should've been removed from the staff, he was. And one of the old doctors who participated in the removal was also a family friend, and I asked him: I said, "Tell me, did he think, 'Here's a way for me to exercise my talents'" -- this guy was very skilled technically-- "'and make a high living by doing a few maiming's and murders every year, along with some frauds?'" And he said, "Hell no, Charlie. He thought that the gall bladder was the sou! rce of al! l medical evil, and if you really love your patients, you couldn't get that organ out rapidly enough."

Now that's an extreme case, but in lesser strength, it's present in every profession and in every human being. And it causes perfectly terrible behavior. If you take sales presentations and brokers of commercial real estate and businesses... I'm 70 years old, I've never seen one I thought was even within hailing distance of objective truth. If you want to talk about the power of incentives and the power of rationalized, terrible behavior: after the Defense Department had had enough experience with cost-plus percentage of cost contracts, the reaction of our republic was to make it a crime for the federal government to write one, and not only a crime, but a felony.

And by the way, the government's right, but a lot of the way the world is run, including most law firms and a lot of other places, they've still got a cost-plus percentage of cost system. And human nature, with its version of what I call 'incentive-caused bias,' causes this terrible abuse. And many of the people who are doing it you would be glad to have married into your family compared to what you're otherwise going to get. [Laughter]

Now there are huge implications from the fact that the human mind is put together this way, and that is that people who create things like cash registers, which make most [dishonest] behavior hard, are some of the effective saints of our civilization. And the cash register was a great moral instrument when it was created. And Patterson knew that, by the way. He had a little store, and the people were stealing him blind and never made any money, and people sold him a couple of cash registers and it went to profit immediately. And, of course, he closed the store and went into the cash register business...

And so this is a huge, important thing. If you read the psychology texts, you will find that if they're 1,000 pages long, there's one sentence. Somehow incentive! -caused b! ias has escaped the standard survey course in psychology.

4. Fourth, and this is a superpower in error-causing psychological tendency: bias from consistency and commitment tendency, including the tendency to avoid or promptly resolve cognitive dissonance. Includes the self-confirmation tendency of all conclusions, particularly expressed conclusions, and with a special persistence for conclusions that are hard-won.

Well what I'm saying here is that the human mind is a lot like the human egg, and the human egg has a shut-off device. When one sperm gets in, it shuts down so the next one can't get in. The human mind has a big tendency of the same sort. And here again, it doesn't just catch ordinary mortals; it catches the deans of physics. According to Max Planck, the really innovative, important new physics was never really accepted by the old guard. Instead a new guard came along that was less brain-blocked by its previous conclusions. And if Max Planck's crowd had this consistency and commitment tendency that kept their old inclusions intact in spite of disconfirming evidence, you can imagine what the crowd that you and I are part of behaves like.

And of course, if you make a public disclosure of your conclusion, you're pounding it into your own head. Many of these students that are screaming at us, you know, they aren't convincing us, but they're forming mental change for themselves, because what they're shouting out [is] what they're pounding in. And I think educational institutions that create a climate where too much of that goes on are...in a fundamental sense, they're irresponsible institutions. It's very important to not put your brain in chains too young by what you shout out.

And all these things like painful qualifying and initiation rituals pound in your commitments and your ideas. The Chinese brainwashing system, which was for war prisoners, was way better than anybody else's. They maneuvered people into making tiny little commitments and declar! ations, a! nd then they'd slowly build. That worked way better than torture.

5. Fifth: bias from Pavlovian association, misconstruing past correlation as a reliable basis for decision-making.

I never took a course in psychology, or economics either for that matter, but I did learn about Pavlov in high school biology. And the way they taught it, you know, so the dog salivated when the bell rang. So what? Nobody made the least effort to tie that to the wide world. Well the truth of the matter is that Pavlovian association is an enormously powerful psychological force in the daily life of all of us. And, indeed, in economics we wouldn't have money without the role of so-called secondary reinforcement, which is a pure psychological phenomenon demonstrated in the laboratory.

Practically...I'd say 3/4 of advertising works on pure Pavlov. Think how association, pure association, works. Take Coca-Cola company (we're the biggest share-holder). They want to be associated with every wonderful image: heroics in the Olympics, wonderful music, you name it. They don't want to be associated with presidents' funerals and so- forth. When have you seen a Coca-Cola ad...and the association really works.

And all these psychological tendencies work largely or entirely on a subconscious level, which makes them very insidious. Now you've got Persian messenger syndrome. The Persians really did kill the messenger who brought the bad news. You think that is dead? I mean you should've seen Bill Paley in his last 20 years. [Paley was the former owner, chairman and CEO of CBS; his bio is at [www.kcmetro.cc.mo.us]] He didn't hear one damn thing he didn't want to hear. People knew that it was bad for the messenger to bring Bill Paley things he didn't want to hear. Well that means that the leader gets in a cocoon of unreality, and this is a great big enterprise, and boy, did he make some dumb decisions in the last 20 years.

And now the Persian messenger syndrome is alive and well. I saw, some ye! ars ago, ! Arco and Exxon arguing over a few hundred millions of ambiguity in their North Slope treaties before a superior court judge in Texas, with armies of lawyers and experts on each side. Now this is a Mad Hatter's tea party: two engineering-style companies can't resolve some ambiguity without spending tens of millions of dollars in some Texas superior court? In my opinion what happens is that nobody wants to bring the bad news to the executives up the line. But here's a few hundred million dollars you thought you had that you don't. And it's much safer to act like the Persian messenger who goes away to hide rather than bring home the news of the battle lost.

Talking about economics, you get a very interesting phenomenon that I've seen over and over again in a long life. You've got two products; suppose they're complex, technical products. Now you'd think, under the laws of economics, that if product A costs X, if product Y costs X minus something, it will sell better than if it sells at X plus something, but that's not so. In many cases when you raise the price of the alternative products, it'll get a larger market share than it would when you make it lower than your competitor's product. That's because the bell, a Pavlovian bell -- I mean ordinarily there's a correlation between price and value -- then you have an information inefficiency. And so when you raise the price, the sales go up relative to your competitor. That happens again and again and again. It's a pure Pavlovian phenomenon. You can say, "Well, the economists have figured this sort of thing out when they started talking about information inefficiencies," but that was fairly late in economics that they found such an obvious thing. And, of course, most of them don't ask what causes the information inefficiencies.

Well one of the things that causes it is pure old Pavlov and his dog. Now you've got bios from Skinnerian association: operant conditioning, you know, where you give the dog a reward an! d pound i! n the behavior that preceded the dog's getting the award. And, of course, Skinner was able to create superstitious pigeons by having the rewards come by accident with certain occurrences, and, of course, we all know people who are the human equivalents of superstitious pigeons. That's a very powerful phenomenon. And, of course, operant conditioning really works. I mean the people in the center who think that operant conditioning is important are very much right, it's just that Skinner overdid it a little.

Where you see in business just perfectly horrible results from psychologically-rooted tendencies is in accounting. If you take Westinghouse, which blew, what, two or three billion dollars pre-tax at least loaning developers to build hotels, and virtually 100% loans? Now you say any idiot knows that if there's one thing you don't like it's a developer, and another you don't like it's a hotel. And to make a 100% loan to a developer who's going to build a hotel... [Laughter] But this guy, he probably was an engineer or something, and he didn't take psychology any more than I did, and he got out there in the hands of these salesmen operating under their version of incentive-caused bias, where any damned way of getting Westinghouse to do it was considered normal business, and they just blew it.

That would never have been possible if the accounting system hadn't been such but for the initial phase of every transaction it showed wonderful financial results. So people who have loose accounting standards are just inviting perfectly horrible behavior in other people. And it's a sin, it's an absolute sin. If you carry bushel baskets full of money through the ghetto, and made it easy to steal, that would be a considerable human sin, because you'd be causing a lot of bad behavior, and the bad behavior would spread. Similarly an institution that gets sloppy accounting commits a real human sin, and it's also a dumb way to do business, as Westinghouse has so wonderfully proved! .

O! ddly enough nobody mentions, at least nobody I've seen, what happened with Joe Jett and Kidder Peabody. The truth of the matter is the accounting system was such that by punching a few buttons, the Joe Jetts of the world could show profits, and profits that showed up in things that resulted in rewards and esteem and every other thing... Well the Joe Jetts are always with us, and they're not really to blame, in my judgment at least. But that bastard who created that foolish accounting system who, so far as I know, has not been flayed alive, ought to be.

6. Sixth: bias from reciprocation tendency, including the tendency of one on a roll to act as other persons expect.

Well here, again, Cialdini does a magnificent job at this, and you're all going to be given a copy of Cialdini's book. And if you have half as much sense as I think you do, you will immediately order copies for all of your children and several of your friends. You will never make a better investment.

It is so easy to be a patsy for what he calls the compliance practitioners of this life. At any rate, reciprocation tendency is a very, very powerful phenomenon, and Cialdini demonstrated this by running around a campus, and he asked people to take juvenile delinquents to the zoo. And it was a campus, and so one in six actually agreed to do it. And after he'd accumulated a statistical output he went around on the same campus and he asked other people, he said, "Gee, would you devote two afternoons a week to taking juvenile delinquents somewhere and suffering greatly yourself to help them," and there he got 100% of the people to say no. But after he'd made the first request, he backed up a little, and he said, "Would you at least take them to the zoo one afternoon?" He raised the compliance rate from a third to a half. He got three times the success by just going through the little ask-for-a-lot-and-back-off.

Now if the human mind, on a subconscious level, can be manipulated that way and you don't kno! w it, I a! lways use the phrase, "You're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest." I mean you are really giving a lot of quarter to the external world that you can't afford to give. And on this so-called role theory, where you tend to act in the way that other people expect, and that's reciprocation if you think about the way society is organized.

A guy named Zimbardo had people at Stanford divide into two pieces: one were the guards and the other were the prisoners, and they started acting out roles as people expected. He had to stop the experiment after about five days. He was getting into human misery and breakdown and pathological behavior. I mean it was...it was awesome. However, Zimbardo is greatly misinterpreted. It's not just reciprocation tendency and role theory that caused that, it's consistency and commitment tendency. Each person, as he acted as a guard or a prisoner, the action itself was pounding in the idea. [For more on this famous experiment, see [www.prisonexp.org].]

Wherever you turn, this consistency and commitment tendency is affecting you. In other words, what you think may change what you do, but perhaps even more important, what you do will change what you think. And you can say, "Everybody knows that." I want to tell you I didn't know it well enough early enough.

7. Seventh, now this is a lollapalooza, and Henry Kaufman wisely talked about this: bias from over-influence by social proof -- that is, the conclusions of others, particularly under conditions of natural uncertainty and stress.

And here, one of the cases the psychologists use is Kitty Genovese, where all these people -- I don't know, 50, 60, 70 of them -- just sort of sat and did nothing while she was slowly murdered. Now one of the explanations is that everybody looked at everybody else and nobody else was doing anything, and so there's automatic social proof that the right thing to do is nothing. That's not a good enough explanation for Kitty Genovese, in my judgment. T! hat's o! nly part of it. There are microeconomic ideas and gain/loss ratios and so forth that also come into play. I think time and time again, in reality, psychological notions and economic notions interplay, and the man who doesn't understand both is a damned fool.

Big-shot businessmen get into these waves of social proof. Do you remember some years ago when one oil company bought a fertilizer company, and every other major oil company practically ran out and bought a fertilizer company? And there was no more damned reason for all these oil companies to buy fertilizer companies, but they didn't know exactly what to do, and if Exxon was doing it, it was good enough for Mobil, and vice versa. I think they're all gone now, but it was a total disaster.

Now let's talk about efficient market theory, a wonderful economic doctrine that had a long vogue in spite of the experience of Berkshire Hathaway. In fact one of the economists who won -- he shared a Nobel Prize -- and as he looked at Berkshire Hathaway year after year, which people would throw in his face as saying maybe the market isn't quite as efficient as you think, he said, "Well, it's a two-sigma event." And then he said we were a three-sigma event. And then he said we were a four-sigma event. And he finally got up to six sigmas -- better to add a sigma than change a theory, just because the evidence comes in differently. [Laughter] And, of course, when this share of a Nobel Prize went into money management himself, he sank like a stone.

If you think about the doctrines I've talked about, namely, one, the power of reinforcement -- after all you do something and the market goes up and you get paid and rewarded and applauded and what have you, meaning a lot of reinforcement, if you make a bet on a market and the market goes with you. Also, there's social proof. I mean the prices on the market are the ultimate form of social proof, reflecting what other people think, and so the combination is very powerful. Why would you ex! pect gene! ral market levels to always be totally efficient, say even in 1973-74 at the pit, or in 1972 or whatever it was when the Nifty 50 were in their heyday? If these psychological notions are correct, you would expect some waves of irrationality, which carry general levels, so they're inconsistent with reason.

8. Nine [he means eight]: what made these economists love the efficient market theory is the math was so elegant.

And after all, math was what they'd learned to do. To the man with a hammer, every problem tends to look pretty much like a nail. The alternative truth was a little messy, and they'd forgotten the great economists Keynes, whom I think said, "Better to be roughly right than precisely wrong."

9. Nine: bias from contrast-caused distortions of sensation, perception and cognition.

Here, the great experiment that Cialdini does in his class is he takes three buckets of water: one's hot, one's cold and one's room temperature, and he has the student stick his left hand in the hot water and his right hand in the cold water. Then he has them remove the hands and put them both in the room temperature bucket, and of course with both hands in the same bucket of water, one seems hot, the other seems cold because the sensation apparatus of man is over-influenced by contrast. It has no absolute scale; it's got a contrast scale in it. And it's a scale with quantum effects in it too. It takes a certain percentage change before it's noticed.

Maybe you've had a magician remove your watch -- I certainly have -- without your noticing it. It's the same thing. He's taking advantage of contrast-type troubles in your sensory apparatus. But here the great truth is that cognition mimics sensation, and the cognition manipulators mimic the watch-removing magician. In other words, people are manipulating you all day long on this contrast phenomenon.

Cialdini cites the case of the real estate broker. And you've got the rube that's been transferred into you! r town, a! nd the first thing you do is you take the rube out to two of the most awful, overpriced houses you've ever seen, and then you take the rube to some moderately overpriced house, and then you stick him. And it works pretty well, which is why the real estate salesmen do it. And it's always going to work.

And the accidents of life can do this to you, and it can ruin your life. In my generation, when women lived at home until they got married, I saw some perfectly terrible marriages made by highly desirable women because they lived in terrible homes. And I've seen some terrible second marriages which were made because they were slight improvements over an even worse first marriage. You think you're immune from these things, and you laugh, and I want to tell you, you aren't.

My favorite analogy I can't vouch for the accuracy of. I have this worthless friend I like to play bridge with, and he's a total intellectual amateur that lives on inherited money, but he told me once something I really enjoyed hearing. He said, "Charlie," he say, "If you throw a frog into very hot water, the frog will jump out, but if you put the frog in room temperature water and just slowly heat the water up, the frog will die there." Now I don't know whether that's true about a frog, but it's sure as hell true about many of the businessmen I know [laughter], and there, again, it is the contrast phenomenon. But these are hot-shot, high-powered people. I mean these are not fools. If it comes to you in small pieces, you're likely to miss, so if you're going to be a person of good judgment, you have to do something about this warp in your head where it's so misled by mere contrast.

10. Bias from over-influence by authority.

Well here, the Milgrim experiment, as it's called -- I think there have been 1,600 psychological papers written about Milgrim. And he had a person posing as an authority figure trick ordinary people into giving what they had every reason to expect was heavy tort! ure by el! ectric shock to perfectly innocent fellow citizens. And he was trying to show why Hitler succeeded and a few other things, and so this really caught the fancy of the world. Partly it's so politically correct, and over-influence by authority...

You'll like this one: You get a pilot and a co-pilot. The pilot is the authority figure. They don't do this in airplanes, but they've done it in simulators. They have the pilot do something where the co-pilot, who's been trained in simulators a long time -- he knows he's not to allow the plane to crash -- they have the pilot to do something where an idiot co-pilot would know the plane was going to crash, but the pilot's doing it, and the co-pilot is sitting there, and the pilot is the authority figure. 25% of the time the plane crashes. I mean this is a very powerful psychological tendency. It's not quite as powerful as some people think, and I'll get to that later.

11. Eleven: bias from deprival super-reaction syndrome, including bias caused by present or threatened scarcity, including threatened removal of something almost possessed, but never possessed.

Here I took the Munger dog, a lovely, harmless dog. The only way to get that dog to bite you is to try and take something out of its mouth after it was already there. And you know, if you've tried to do takeaways in labor negotiations, you'll know that the human version of that dog is there in all of us. And I have a neighbor, a predecessor who had a little island around the house, and his next door neighbor put a little pine tree on it that was about three feet high, and it turned his 180 degree view of the harbor into 179 3/4. Well they had a blood feud like the Hatfields and McCoys, and it went on and on and on...

I mean people are really crazy about minor decrements down. And then, if you act on them, then you get into reciprocation tendency, because you don't just reciprocate affection, you reciprocate animosity, and the whole thing can escalate. And so huge ins! anities c! an come from just subconsciously over-weighing the importance of what you're losing or almost getting and not getting.

And the extreme business case here was New Coke. Coca-Cola has the most valuable trademark in the world. We're the major shareholder -- I think we understand that trademark. Coke has armies of brilliant engineers, lawyers, psychologists, advertising executives and so forth, and they had a trademark on a flavor, and they'd spent the better part of 100 years getting people to believe that trademark had all these intangible values too. And people associate it with a flavor. And so they were going to tell people not that it was improved, because you can't improve a flavor. A flavor is a matter of taste. I mean you may improve a detergent or something, but don't think you're going to make a major change in a flavor. So they got this huge deprival super-reaction syndrome.

Pepsi was within weeks of coming out with old Coke in a Pepsi bottle, which would've been the biggest fiasco in modern times. Perfect insanity. And by the way, both Goizuetta [Coke's CEO at the time] and Keough [an influential former president and director of the company] are just wonderful about it. I mean they just joke. Keough always says, "I must've been away on vacation." He participated in every single decision -- he's a wonderful guy. And by the way, Goizuetta is a wonderful, smart guy -- an engineer. Smart people make these terrible boners. How can you not understand deprival super-reaction syndrome? But people do not react symmetrically to loss and gain. Well maybe a great bridge player like Zeckhauser does, but that's a trained response. Ordinary people, subconsciously affected by their inborn tendencies...

12. Bias from envy/jealousy.

Well envy/jealousy made, what, two out of the Ten Commandments? Those of you who have raised siblings you know about envy, or tried to run a law firm or investment bank or even a faculty? I've heard Warren say a half a dozen times, �! �It's n! ot greed that drives the world, but envy."

Here again, you go through the psychology survey courses, and you go to the index: envy/jealousy, 1,000-page book, it's blank. There's some blind spots in academia, but it's an enormously powerful thing, and it operates, to a considerable extent, on the subconscious level. Anybody who doesn't understand it is taking on defects he shouldn't have.

13. Bias from chemical dependency.

Well, we don't have to talk about that. We've all seen so much of it, but it's interesting how it'll always cause this moral breakdown if there's any need, and it always involves massive denial. See it just aggravates what we talked about earlier in the aviator case, the tendency to distort reality so that it's endurable.

14. Bias from mis-gambling compulsion.

Well here, Skinner made the only explanation you'll find in the standard psychology survey course. He, of course, created a variable reinforcement rate for his pigeons and his mice, and he found that that would pound in the behavior better than any other enforcement pattern. And he says, "Ah ha! I've explained why gambling is such a powerful, addictive force in this civilization." I think that is, to a very considerable extent, true, but being Skinner, he seemed to think that was the only explanation, but the truth of the matter is that the devisors of these modern machines and techniques know a lot of things that Skinner didn't know.

For instance, a lottery. You have a lottery where you get your number by lot, and then somebody draws a number by lot, it gets lousy play. You have a lottery where people get to pick their number, you get big play. Again, it's this consistency and commitment thing. People think if they have committed to it, it has to be good. The minute they've picked it themselves it gets an extra validity. After all, they thought it and they acted on it.

Then if you take the slot machines, you get bar, bar, walnut. And it happens again! and agai! n and again. You get all these near misses. Well that's deprival super-reaction syndrome, and boy do the people who create the machines understand human psychology. And for the high IQ-crowd they've got poker machines where you make choices. So you can play blackjack, so to speak, with the machine. It's wonderful what we've done with our computers to ruin the civilization.

But at any rate, mis-gambling compulsion is a very, very powerful and important thing. Look at what's happening to our country: every Indian has a reservation, every river town, and look at the people who are ruined by it with the aid of their stock brokers and others. And again, if you look in the standard textbook of psychology you'll find practically nothing on it except maybe one sentence talking about Skinner's rats. That is not an adequate coverage of the subject.
About the author:I am working towards the CPA & CFA designations, and would love to manage an investment partnership in the future. I am a self taught investor through Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ben Graham, Peter Lynch, Joel Greenblatt, David Einhorn, Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, Phillip Fisher and Thornton O'Glove. My focus is a bottoms up Value-GARP strategy with a mix of top down contrarianism.

"When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." - Mark Twain

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Hot US Companies To Watch For 2014

As Jeff Clark expected would happen in late June, gold stocks have put in a bottom... and staged a huge rally.   The benchmark gold index is up 36% off its lows.   Like Jeff, I expect gold stocks will work higher over the longer-term. Of course, there will be corrections along the way, which is why you should stick to some of the world's safest gold stocks.   The key to safety is to focus on "all-in" costs. This is the total cost of an ounce of gold production. It includes the cost of mining at each mine the company owns, plus the costs of running the company.   It is a way to look at gold-mining companies as businesses, instead of simply a way to play rising gold prices. It's a critical idea for making money in the gold-stock sector...   In my most recent issue of the S&A Resource Report, I presented a proprietary, in-depth analysis of the gold sector. I showed readers a selection of the best companies from the gold sector with our estimated "all-in" costs.

Top 5 Up And Coming Stocks To Buy Right Now: Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH)

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. designs, builds, and sells single-family and multi-family homes. The company offers homes for entry-level, move-up, or retirement-oriented buyers. It also engages in rental of previously owned homes that are purchased and improved by the company. The company sells its homes through commissioned new home sales counselors and independent brokers. It operates in 16 states, including Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. Beazer Homes USA, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Amanda Alix]

  The housing market has been steadily improving, lifting the stocks of homebuilders like Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH  ) , Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV  ) , and PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM  ) to heights not seen since the mortgage crisis. Indeed, a recent Federal Reserve survey noted�that housing helped buoy the economy during the first two months of this year, along with auto sales.

• [By WWW.DAILYFINANCE.COM]
  Records fell on Wall Street Friday as another solid report on housing lifted the market for the second day in a row. There's a three-day weekend coming up -- something that often prompts investor caution -- but the gains were broad-based even though volume was fairly light. The VIX, which measures volatility, fell to its lowest level this year. The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) gained 63 points, the Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) rose 31, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) added 8, topping the record high set last week. The Dow Transportation average also raced to an all-time high, lifted by airline stocks. United (UAL) soared more than 4 percent; Delta (DAL) gained more than 1 percent and Southwest (LUV) gained 2 percent. Southwest is at an all-time high, up 79 percent from a year ago. New home sales bounced back with a better than expected 6.4 percent increase last month. Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) both rose 4 percent. Pulte (PHM), Beazer (BZH) and Hovnanian (HOV) also solid posted gains. Earnings continue to drive retail stocks. Gap (GPS) edged higher even though net fell. Foot Locker (FL) gained 1½ percent after topping expectations. GameStop (GME) rose 4 percent. Its net rose, helped by the rollout last year of new Xbox and PlayStation consoles. Zumiez (ZUMZ) rose 5½ percent on an earnings beat. But Aeropostale (ARO) tumbled 24 percent. Its loss widened and sales declined. The retailer continues to struggle with teen fashion trends. Also on the earnings front, TiVo (TIVO) rose 2 percent as it swung to a profit from a year ago loss. It also reported an increase in the number of subscribers. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) rose 6 percent on news the company plans to eliminate up to 16,000 additional workers in an effort to cut costs. And several stocks extended big moves from yesterday. Best Buy (BBY) rose more than 3 percent for the second straight day after earnings beat expectations. Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) jumped
• [By Dan Caplinger]

  One sign of strength recently has come from Toll Brothers' resilience even in the face of higher interest rates. In its July quarter, Toll Brothers managed to see net new signed contracts rise at a 26% pace, more than doubling rival D.R. Horton's (NYSE: DHI  ) pace of growth. What's perhaps most impressive about those gains is that they defied big drops in order volumes at PulteGroup and Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH  ) , both of which saw double-digit percentage decreases in orders during the same period.

• [By Johanna Bennett]

  Beazer Homes USA (BZH) dropped 3.38% to close at $18.60, despite beating analyst forecasts for earnings and revenue, and posting its first full fiscal year of profitability since 2006.

Hot US Companies To Watch For 2014: Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation(CTSH)

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation provides information technology (IT), consulting, and business process outsourcing services in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its IT consulting and technology services include business and knowledge process consulting; IT strategy consulting; program management consulting; technology consulting; application design, development, integration, and re-engineering, such as complex custom systems development, data warehousing/business intelligence, customer relationship management (CRM) system implementation, and enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementation; and software testing services. The company?s outsourcing services comprise application maintenance, including custom application, CRM, and ERP maintenance; IT infrastructure outsourcing; and business and knowledge process outsourcing. It offers its services to various markets, such as financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, logistics and retail, hospitality, con sumer goods, communications, and high technology, as well as information, media, and entertainment markets. The company markets and sells its services directly through its professional staff, senior management, and direct sales personnel. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Rich Bieglmeier]

  [Related -Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH): How Penetration Rates Are Faring?]

  Morgan Stanley says of CTSH, "We upgrade Cognizant to Overweight and establish a $60 price target on accelerating recovery in discretionary spend highlighted in our leading indicator model. We believe upside is not embedded in expectations and see room for upward estimate revisions and share price movement heading into 2H14."

• [By Grace L. Williams]

  At Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH), InsiderScore notes that selling continued after the business consulting and IT solutions company reported its third quarter earnings and the shares hit a 14-year high of $54. InsiderScore writes:

Hot US Companies To Watch For 2014: Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation(GLDD)

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation engages in the business of marine construction, primarily dredging, and commercial and industrial demolition primarily in the east, west, and Gulf Coasts of the United States. The company?s Dredging segment is involved in capital dredging projects consisting of primarily port expansion projects, land reclamations, trench digging for pipelines, tunnels and cables, and other dredging related to the construction of breakwaters, jetties, and canals; beach nourishment projects, which involve moving sand from the ocean floor to shoreline locations; and maintenance dredging that includes the re-dredging of previously deepened waterways and harbors to remove silt, sand, and other accumulated sediments, as well as lake and river dredging, inland levee and construction dredging, environmental restoration, and habitat improvement. Its Demolition segment provides commercial and industrial demolition services. It is involved in exterior demolition that comprises dismantling and demolition of structures and foundations; and interior demolition, which includes removing specific structures within a building. This segment also engages in site development, removal of asbestos and other hazardous materials, and remediation of contaminated demolition materials. The company serves federal, state, and local governments; foreign governments; domestic and foreign private concerns, such as utilities and oil companies; general contractors; corporations that commission projects; nonprofit institutions, such as universities and hospitals; and local government and municipal agencies. It has a fleet of 33 dredges, including 8 deployed internationally; 19 material transportation barges; 2 drill boats; and various other specialized support vessels. The company was formerly known as Lydon & Drews Partnership and changed its name to Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation in 1905. The company was founded in 1809 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Seth Jayson]

  There's no foolproof way to know the future for Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (Nasdaq: GLDD  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

• [By Seth Jayson]

  Calling all cash flows
  When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (Nasdaq: GLDD  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

• [By Seth Jayson]

  When judging a company's prospects, how quickly it turns cash outflows into cash inflows can be just as important as how much profit it's booking in the accounting fantasy world we call "earnings." This is one of the first metrics I check when I'm hunting for the market's best stocks. Today, we'll see how it applies to Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (Nasdaq: GLDD  ) .

Hot US Companies To Watch For 2014: John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (PDT)

John Hancock Patriot Premium Dividend Fund II (the Fund) is a diversified closed-end management investment company. The Fund's investment objective is to provide high current income together with capital growth. The Fund invests in a diversified portfolio of dividend-paying preferred and common stocks. It invests at least 80% of its net assets in dividend-paying securities. The Fund will normally invest more than 65% of its total assets in securities of companies in the utilities industry. Preferred stocks and debt obligations in which the Fund invests are rated investment grade (at least BBB by Standard & Poor�� or Baa by Moody�� Investors Service) at the time of investment, or will be preferred stocks of issuers of investment-grade senior debt, or if not rated, will be of comparable quality as determined by the Fund�� investment advisor. The Fund will invest in common stocks of issuers, whose senior debt is rated investment grade, or in the case of issuers that have no rated senior debt outstanding, whose senior debt is considered by its advisor to be of comparable quality. Its portfolio includes common stocks, preferred securities and short-term investments.

In May 2007, the Fund completed the acquisition of John Hancock Patriot Preferred Dividend Fund. In June 2007, the Fund acquired Hancock John Patriot Global Dividend Fund and John Hancock Patriot Premium Div Fund I. On October 10, 2007, the Fund completed the acquisition of John Hancock Patriot Select Dividend Trust Fund.

The Fund invests in industries, such as multi-utilities, electric utilities, investment banking and brokerage, other diversified financial services, oil and gas exploration and production, gas utilities, consumer finance, life and health insurance, and integrated telecommunication services. John Hancock Patriot Premium Dividend Fund II�� investment advisor is John Hancock Advisers, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of John Hancock Financial Services, Inc., which is a subsidiary of Manulife Fina! ncial Corporation. The Fund�� sub-advisor is MFC Global Investment Management (U.S.), LLC.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Ari Charney]

  John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (PDT) tends to allocate roughly 30% to 40% of the portfolio to equities and 60% to 70% to preferred stock, with the utilities and financial sectors as its main focus.

Hot US Companies To Watch For 2014: US Ecology Inc.(ECOL)

US Ecology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides waste treatment, disposal, recycling, and transportation services to commercial and government entities in the United States. The company offers treatment and disposal services for radioactive, hazardous, polychlorinated biphenyl, and non-hazardous industrial wastes. Its customers include oil refineries, chemical production facilities, manufacturers, electric utilities, steel mills, biotechnology companies, military installations, waste brokers/aggregators, and medical and academic institutions. The company was formerly known as American Ecology Corporation and changed its name to US Ecology, Inc. in February 2010. US Ecology, Inc. was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Damian Illia]

  As we can see, the firm has a higher ROE than Amrep Corporation (AXR) but is well below the one registered by US Ecology Inc. (ECOL) and Cintas Corporation (CTAS).

• [By Brian Pacampara]

  Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, hazardous waste disposal specialist US Ecology (NASDAQ: ECOL  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

• [By Lauren Pollock]

  Among the stocks to watch in Monday’s session are US Ecology Inc.(ECOL), Akamai, and Dow Chemical Co.(DOW)

  US Ecology again raised its earnings guidance for the year, pointing to strong volumes and accelerated project shipments, but warned its results for next year may take a hit as a result. The company, which provides waste- management and recycling services, also outlined plans to offer about $100 million in stock. Shares dropped 10% to $34.51 premarket.

• [By Damian Illia] ides waste management and recycling services to manufacturing, industrial and energy-related sectors. The company�� five waste sites treat hazardous and non-hazardous industrial waste, as well as radioactive and PCB waste. In addition, the company麓s Robstown treatment plant in Texas counts with a thermal desorption unit that treats refinery sludge.

  In the following sections I will show you that we are dealing with a very profitable growth stock, that has an above average ROE rate of 13.89%, and operates with a net margin of 15.99%.

  Holding a Strong Position in the Market

  ECOL has two revenue streams. Business contracts to treat customers��periodic disposal needs on the one hand, and event-driven services that apply to special projects or cleanup work on the other.

  Furthermore, the company has a wide economic moat largely stemming from three factors: its efficient scale, its high switching costs and its intangible assets. Of the 20 commercial hazardous-waste landfills operational in the U.S., the majority are run by US Ecology and its main competitors Waste Management Inc. (WM), and Clean Harbors Inc. (CLH). With barriers to entry stemming from regulatory permits, and a limited market size, ECOL has managed to achieve an efficient scale in the market with five hazardous waste-sides. The company�� intangible assets consist of long-term regulatory permits, which enable US Ecology to posses a ��atekeeper privilege��regarding barriers to new entrants. In addition, customer switching costs are high, thus further adding to the firm�� ability to sustain growth in the long term.

  Good Investments and New Management Should Ensure Profitable Growth

  A range of new treatment services should also help ensure profitable growth for coming years. For example, the Texas facility which operates a new thermal desorption technology for oil refinery sludge since 2008 has been responsible for 10% of revenue and is expected to keep grow

Hot US Companies To Watch For 2014: GOFF, CORP. (GOFF)

Goff Corporation, incorporated on July 12, 2010, is a development-stage company. The Company, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Golden Glory Resources S.A., is engaged in mineral exploration. The Company's primary project is the La Frontera Gold Project located in the Aguadas Department, in Caldas, Colombia. The Project is being pursued as a potential bulk-tonnage, gold-silver target. Golden Glory acquired its leases on the La Frontera through a transaction with a Colombian company and holds a 100% working interest in the property. The Company through its subsidiary Golden Glory Resources, focuses on the La Frontera Gold Project covers prospective ground and merits continued gold exploration, including exploration diamond drilling. In April 2013, the Company has established a new, wholly owned subsidiary Golden Glory Resources Colombia SAS.

The La Frontera Project is in the Aguadas, Department Of Caldera, which is located approximately 60 kilometers south of Medellin, Colombia. A NI43-101 report is completed on the La Frontera Property, which identifies the potential for gold in both veins and a porphyry structure on the leases. The LGC-15011 Project (La Frontera Project) is located in the northern department of Caldas, Colombia (LGC-15011 has 30% in Antioquia), in the village of Puente Piedra, in the municipality of Aguadas.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Brian Richards]

  Goff (NASDAQOTCBB: GOFF  ) , a social recruiting-company-turned-Colombian-gold miner, did not exist as an incorporated business before the summer of 2010 and did not trade as a public company until March 2013. Yet since its debut on the over-the-counter market, on average it has traded more shares each day than Apple or ExxonMobil.

5 Best Casino Stocks To Invest In Right Now

5 Best Casino Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Caribbean International Holdings Inc (CIHN)

Caribbean International Holdings Inc., formerly Caribbean Casino and Gaming Corporation, incorporated on February 12, 2009, is focused in the gaming and entertainment company. The Company has a gaming casino, located in the city of Sousa, in the Dominican Republic. In April 2012, it acquired exclusive rights to distribute Bionic Products' Energy Drinks throughout the Caribbean, South and Central America.

The Sosua Bay Grand Casino provides the gaming and entertainment experience to the Domincan Republic. It is equipped with a state of the art lighting and sound system.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Peter Graham]

  Small cap stocks Caribbean International Holdings (OTCMKTS: CIHN), Blue Water Global Group Inc (OTCBB: BLUU) and Metrospaces Inc (OTCMKTS: MSPC) have been getting some attention lately in various investment newsletters and all three have focused their activities in the Caribbean or South America. However, all three have been the subject of paid promotions which have helped to get them mentions in various investment newsletters. With that in mind, will bets on the Caribbean or South America pay off big for these three small cap stocks and their investors? Here is a quick reality check:

  Caribbean International Holdings (OTCMKTS: CIHN) is All About Wings, Mechanical Bulls and Stem Cells

  Formerly known as Caribbean Casino & Gaming Corp, small cap Caribbean International Holdings operates as a holding company. On Friday, Caribbean International Holdings rose 8.39% to $0.0369 for a market cap of $315,400 plus CIHN is up 985.3% over the past year and up 7,280% over the past five years according to Google Finance.

source from Top Stocks For 2015:http://www.topstocksblog.com/5-best-casin! o-stocks-to-invest-in-right-now-2.html

For LPL, recruiting numbers add up

LPL CEO Mark Casady Bloomberg News

Recruiting came roaring back in the third quarter for LPL Financial, which added 154 net new registered representatives and advisers for the three-month period ended Sept. 30.

The firm added 40 registered reps from a bank, which LPL declined to identify. The recruiting figures were made public as part of the firm's third-quarter earnings report Wednesday.

The robust quarter brings LPL's 12-month recruiting tally to 393 net new reps and advisers, putting the industry's largest independent broker-dealer in line with its long-stated objective of adding at least 400 net new reps and advisers per year.

Like many of its competitors, LPL's recruiting was in the doldrums over the first half of the year, a period in which it added just 56 net new advisers.

LPL's recruiting efforts have long led the industry and are widely regarded as a bellwether among its competitors, which likewise saw a slowdown in recruiting in the first half.

(See also: LPL puts layoff, outsourcing plan into action)

Overall, LPL reported a solid quarter: Net revenue increased 16.1% compared with the same period a year earlier, reaching $1.05 billion. Net income was $37.6 million, an increase of 9.7% versus the same quarter in 2012. Total assets were $414.7 billion as of Sept. 30, up 11.7% from a year ago. The firm now has 13,563 registered reps and advisers.

With the strong performance of the stock market in the first half, reps and advisers were reluctant to move, chief executive Mark Casady said Wednesday in a conference call with analysts. During that time, advisory firms either were focused on existing clients or getting used to the increased volume and adding staff members to deal with their practices' higher revenue, he said. That slowed down recruiting.

Recruiting got back to normal over the summer, Mr. Casady said.

“In the third quarter, recruiting was from all over,” he said, with reps and advisers leaving banks, credit unions, insurance company-owned broker-dealers, independent broker-dealers and wirehouses to join LPL.

Mr. Casady said that LPL is continuing to study the idea of starting a bank and will have more information regarding that potential line of business in a few months.

Commission revenue jumped 19.3% in the third quarter compared with the 2012 period; that reflected an increase in sales of alternative investments, including nontraded real estate investment trusts, the company said.

Along with several other independent broker-dealers, LPL has drawn scrutiny over the past year for sales of nontraded REITs. In total, six IBDs, including LPL and Securities America Inc., have agr! eed to offer $21.6 million in restitution to clients with regard to violations involving sales of nontraded REITs, and they have paid fines of close to $1.5 million.

(Don't miss: Massachusetts hits five IBDs with $10.75M charge on nontraded REIT sales)

LPL's chief financial officer, Dan Arnold, said in an interview that commissions from nontraded REITs increased as trusts such as Cole Credit Property Trust III became listed companies. As a result, some clients selling those holdings and allocating the money into other nontraded REITs that promise yields of 6% to 7%.

Mr. Arnold added that LPL was seeing potential to add advisers from banks with $30 billion to $60 billion in assets that are looking to outsource broker-dealers business to a third party such as LPL.

“There is a trend towards larger banks exploring outsourcing for economic reasons, and one bank [this past quarter] did deliver 35 to 40 reps,” he said.

10 Best Cheapest Stocks To Watch Right Now

10 Best Cheapest Stocks To Watch Right Now: Crumbs Bake Shop Inc (CRMB)

Crumbs Bake Shop, Inc., formerly 57th Street General Acquisition Corp., incorporated on October 29, 2009, is owner of Crumbs Holdings LLC (Crumbs), a neighborhood bakery and a retailer of cupcakes. As of November 1, 2011, Crumbs had 43 locations, including 29 locations in the New York Metro area, nine locations on the West Coast, three locations in Washington, D.C., one location in Virginia and one location in Chicago. The specialty of the house is cupcakes; however, the menu also includes a blend of baked goods. On May 5, 2011, the Company merged with Crumbs.

The Company offers a range of Signature and Taste size cupcakes. Signature cupcakes are ordered in increments of six. One can create its own individual six packs or choose a pre-selected assortment. Its Taste size cupcakes are offered by the dozen in pre-selected favorites assortments. There are more than 60 varieties of cupcakes baked fresh daily with a new cupcake of the week debuting each Monday.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jack Kramer and Nick Martell]

  2. Crumbs Cupcake stock continues to drop
  Pour some sugar on me, baby, because the recent performance of cupcake-makin' chain Crumbs Bake Shop (NASDAQ: CRMB  ) hasn't tasted good for investors. The stock has fallen nearly 30% in the past month, dropped 13.4% in the last week, and dipped almost 2% Monday on growing doubts the company can even stay in business.

• [By Kyle Woodley]

  I love cupcakes. More specifically, I love Crumbs Bake Shop (CRMB) cupcakes. I absolutely do.

  Thats why it pains me to say that CRMB stock is dead money.

• [By Lex Haris]

  Crumbs (CRMB) closed all of its stores Monday, and has been struggling for some time. It began closing outlets in 2013 amid steep losses. At the end of the first quarter this year, it had 65 locations in 12 states.

source from Top Stocks To Buy For 2015:http://www.topstocksforum.com/10-best-cheapest-stocks-to-watch-right-now.html

Hot Life Sciences Stocks To Watch Right Now

Hot Life Sciences Stocks To Watch Right Now: TAL Education Group(XRS)

TAL Education Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the People?s Republic of China. It offers tutoring services to K-12 students covering various academic subjects, including mathematics, English, Chinese, physics, chemistry, and biology. The company provides tutoring services through small classes; personalized premium services, such as one-on-one tutoring; and online course offerings. As of May 31, 2011, it operated a network of 199 physical learning centers in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi?an; and eduu.com, an online education platform for online courses. The company also offers education and management consulting services, as well as sells software. It operates under the Xueersi brand. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Lisa Levin]

  TAL Education Group (NYSE: XRS) shares rose 4.30% to $20.86. The volume of TAL Education Group shares traded was 318% higher than normal. TAL Education's PEG ratio is 1.14.

source from Top Penny Stocks For 2015:http://www.seekpennystocks.com/hot-life-sciences-stocks-to-watch-right-now-3.html

Top Recreation Stocks To Invest In Right Now

Top Recreation Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Life Time Fitness Inc (LTM)

Life Time Fitness, Inc., incorporated on October 15, 1990, operates multi-use sports and athletic, professional fitness, family recreation and spa centers in a resort-like environment. As of February 28, 2013, the Company operated 105 centers under the LIFE TIME FITNESS and LIFE TIME ATHLETIC SM brands primarily in suburban locations in 28 major markets in the United States and Canada. The Companys model centers target 7,500 to 11,000 memberships by offering, on average, 114,000 square feet of multi-use sports and athletic, professional fitness, family recreation, spa amenities and programs and services in a resort-like environment. Life Time programs include a range of interest areas, such as group fitness, yoga, swimming, running, racquetball, squash, tennis, Pilates, martial arts, kids activities and camps, adult activities and leagues, rock climbing, cycling, basketball, personal training, weight loss and nutrition initiatives, spa, medi-spa and chiropractic service s. Life Time program offerings may vary by location. Effective August 28, 2012, MGC Diagnostics Corporation sold the assets of its New Leaf business to the Company.

The Company's offerings also include the Company's line of nutritional products and supplements, and its magazine, Experience Life. The Company also has an Athletic Events division, which offers more than 100 events each year, including running, cycling and triathlon events from entry-level to ultra-endurance. Additionally, the Company offers a portfolio of health assessments to its members at its centers, as well as employees at corporate clients, along with partnerships with health insurance companies. The Company offers different types of membership plans for individuals, couples and families. The Company's memberships include the primary member's children under the age of 12 at a modest per child monthly cost. The Company provides the majority of its members with a variety ! of services with their membership, including group fitness classes and fitness asse! ssments, towel and locker service and an online subscription to its magazine, Experience Life. The Company's membership plans include initial 14-day money back guarantees and are month-to-month, cancelable by giving up to 60 days advance notice. The Company's ancillary businesses include media, athletic events and related services, health promotion programs and training and certification programs.

The Company offers one-on-one sessions and small group sessions for individual member and a group of two to four members. The Company offers large group (typically eight to 12 members) programs under its T.E.A.M. platform. The Company's T.E.A.M. Weight Loss program focuses on exercise, education and nutrition and provides the resources and support toward long-term weight loss. The T.E.A.M. Fitness program combines cardio exercise with strength training. The Company's endurance program focuses on training in the proper heart rate zones, for the proper duration of time a nd at the proper frequency to burn fat more efficiently while improving overall health and fitness. The Company's T.E.A.M. Boot Camp enables members to test their strength, agility and stamina. From time to time, the Company also offers other weight loss and nutrition programs, such as the Life Time 90-Day Weight Loss Challenge, as an opportunity for members to receive education, training and motivation. The Company's centers offer fitness programs, including group fitness classes and health and fitness training seminars on subjects ranging from metabolism to personal nutrition. On average, the Company offers 85 group fitness classes per week at each current model center, including studio cycling, step workout, dance classes, circuit training and fitness yoga classes.

The Company's large format centers feature a Life Cafe, which offers fresh and healthy made-to-order and pre-prepared breakfast, lunch and dinner items, including san! dwiches, ! salads, snacks, shake s and more. The Company's Life Cafes offer customers the cho! ice of di! ning indoors, ordering their meals and snacks to go or, in each of the Company's model centers and certain of its other large format centers, dining outdoors at the poolside bistro. Life Cafes also typically offer the Life Time line of nutritional products and supplements, third-party nutritional products, exercise accessories and personal care products. The Company's LifeSpa is a salon and spa. Each in-center LifeSpa offers hair, body, skin care and massage therapy services, customized to each client's individual needs. The Company also offers medi-spa services in select locations. LifeClinic Chiropractic services are provided by licensed chiropractors. LifeClinic Chiropractic offers non-invasive form of soft tissue and joint treatment. The Company's centers offer on-site child centers for children from three months through 11 years of age as part of a monthly fee per child. All of the Company's large format centers offer a variety of additional programs for children, which may include birthday parties, school break camps, parents' night out, sports and fitness classes and swimming lessons. For adults, the Company offers a variety of sports leagues and interest-driven clubs.

During the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company produced over 100 events, serving over 90,000 participants. The Company's events range from entry level to ultra endurance events and draw from local, regional, national and international markets. The Company's larger events include triathlons such as the Life Time Tri Minneapolis and Life Time Tri Chicago, as well as the iconic Leadville Trail 100 Mountain Bike Race Across the Sky. The Company produces events primarily in markets in which the Company operates centers, including themed runs such as the Torchlight 5K Run and Turkey Day 5K. The Company offers a line of nutritional products, including Men's and Women 's Performance Multivitamins, Omega-3 Fish oils, Joint ! Maintenan! ce Formulation, LeanSource Soft Gels, VeganMax, Whey Protein, and FastFuel Complete, its me! al replac! ement product.

The Company competes with 4 Hour Fitness Worldwide, Inc., Equinox Holdings, Inc., LA Fitness International, LLC, Town Sports International, Inc. and Gold's Gym.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Will Ashworth]

  Activist investor Mick McGuire reported last week that his firm, Marcato Capital, acquired 7.2% of Life Time Fitness (LTM), the Minneapolis-based operator of 110 super-sized fitness centers nationwide. Although LTM stock is up 13% year-to-date through May 28, McGuire believes its stock price can do a lot more.

• [By amigobulls@twitter]

  Twitter currently trades at a Last Twelve Months (LTM) Price to Sales (PS) ratio of 27, which translates to astronomical valuations. Consider a comparison with Facebook which generates about 10 times the revenue and still grows at a healthy 60 odd percent. Facebook trades at an LTM PS multiple of 19. Here one should note that Facebook also delivered a net profit margin of 27% in Q2 vs Twitter's loss margin of 46% and has nearly 5 times Twitter's active users.

• [By John Udovich]

  On Thursday, small cap fitness club owner Life Time Fitness, Inc (NYSE: LTM) lost some weight for investors as analysts gave the stock a workout after its Analyst Day failed to ease their concerns, meanings its worth taking a closer look at the stock along with the performance of Town Sports International Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ: CLUB)and Steiner Leisure Ltd (NASDAQ: STNR).

source from Top Stocks To Buy For 2015:http://www.topstocksforum.com/top-recreation-stocks-to-invest-in-right-now-2.html

Best Prefered Companies To Own For 2015

Best Prefered Companies To Own For 2015: Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc (ASX)

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. is principally engaged in the manufacture, assembly, processing, testing and distribution of integrated circuits (ICs). The Company provides semiconductor packaging and testing services, including plastic leaded chip carriers (PLCCs), quad flat packages (QFPs) and flip chip packaging technology, among others, which are applied in the manufacture of household electrical appliances, communication devices, automobile components, personal computers, set top boxes, servers, memory integrated circuits (ICs), mobile phones, digital cameras, game consoles, projectors, high definition (HD) televisions, wireless communication network products and power management ICs, among others. The Company operates its businesses primarily in Taiwan, Europe and the Americas. In August 2010, the Company acquired a 100% interest in EEMS Test Singapore.

The Company is focused on packaging and testing logic semiconductors. The Company offers its customers turnkey services, which consist of packaging, testing and direct shipment of semiconductors to end users designated by its customers. The Companys global base of over 200 customers includes semiconductor companies across a range of end use applications, including Altera Corporation, ATI Technologies, Inc., Broadcom Corporation, Cambridge Silicon Radio Limited and Microsoft Corporation. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Companys packaging revenues accounted for 77.7% of its net revenues and its testing revenues accounted for 20.1% of its net revenues.

Packaging Services

The Company offers a range of package types to meet the requirements of its customers, with a focus on packaging solutions. Within its portfolio of package types, the Company focuses on the packaging of semiconductors. These include advanced leadframe-based package types, such as quad flat package, thin quad flat package, bu! mp chip carrier and quad flat no -lead package, and package types based on substrates, such as flip-chip ball grid array (BGA) and other BGA types, as well as other packages, such as wafer-bumping products. Leadframe-based packages are packaged by connecting the die, using wire bonders, to the leadframe with gold wire. The Companys leadframe-based packages include quad flat package (QFP)/ thin quad flat package (TQFP), quad flat no-lead package (QFN)/microchip carrier (MCC), advanced quad flat no-lead package (AQFN), bump chip carrier (BCC), small outline plastic package (SOP)/thin small outline plastic package (TSOP), small outline plastic j-bend package (SOJ), plastic leaded chip carrier (PLCC) and plastic dual in-line package (PDIP). Substrate-based packages employ the BGA design, which utilizes a substrate rather than a leadframe. It also assembles system-in-a-package products, which involve the integration of more than one chip into the same package. The Companys substrate-based packages include Plastic BGA, Cavity Down BGA, Stacked-Die BGA, Flip-Chip BGA and land grid array (LGA).

The Companys wafer-level packaging products include wafer level chip scale package (aCSP) and advanced wafer level package (aWLP). The Company offers module assembly services, which combine one or more packaged semiconductors with other components in an integrated module to enable functionality, typically using surface mount technology (SMT) machines and other machinery and equipment for system-level assembly. End use applications for modules include cellular phones, personal digital assistant (PDAs), wireless local area network (LAN) applications, bluetooth applications, camera modules, automotive applications and toys.

The Company provides module assembly services primarily at its facilities in Korea for radio frequency and power amplifier modules used in wireless communications and automotive applications. Interconnect materials connect the input/output on the semiconductor dies to the ! printed c! ircuit board. Interconnect materials include substrate, which is a multi-layer miniature printed circuit board. The Company produces substrates for use in its packaging operations.

Testing Services

The Company provides a range of semiconductor testing services, including front-end engineering testing, wafer probing, final testing of logic/mixed-signal/radio frequency (RF) and memory semiconductors and other test-related services. The Company provides front-end engineering testing services, including customized software development, electrical design validation, and reliability and failure analysis. The Company provides final testing services for a variety of memory products, such as static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), single-bit erasable programmable read-only memory semiconductors and flash memory semiconductors.

The Company provides a range of additional te st-related services, including burn-in testing, module sip testing, dry pack, tape and reel, and electric interface board and mechanical test tool design. The Company offers drop shipment services for shipment of semiconductors directly to end users designated by its customers.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jeff Reeves]

  Next Page

  Best Stocks to Buy for Around $5: Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX)

  Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX) builds and distributes integrated circuits and other electronics. While thats not as sexy as other chipmakers that play to mobile, its still a good business, considering the general demand for microchips in everything from cars to computers to TVs.

source from Top Stocks To Buy For 2015:http://www.topstocksforum.com/best-prefered-companies-to-own-for-2015-4.html

Best Semiconductor Stocks To Own Right Now

Fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Ashraf Eassa and I have both written previously about Ultratech (UTEK), a semiconductor equipment company that we both like for its innovative positions in laser spike annealing (LSA) and advanced packaging lithography ("flip chips"), as well as the potential of its steppers in LED manufacturing. In particular, we have both made the case that advanced annealing technologies are likely to be a critical factor in the move to sub-20nm processes.

Ultratech isn't the only game in town, though, and there are multiple technologies and process steps that are going to play significant roles in the production of FinFETs and 3D circuits. With that, I would take a look at Mattson Technologies (MTSN), as this company has already accomplished the not-so-easy task of gaining meaningful share in the dry strip, rapid thermal processing (RTP), and etch markets despite competing with giants like Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Tokyo Electron (TOELY.PK).

Best Supermarket Companies To Buy For 2015: On Track Innovations Ltd (OTIV)

On Track Innovations Ltd. (OTI) designs, develops and markets solutions based on its secure contactless microprocessor-based smart card technology to address the needs of a range of markets. The Company�� products combine the benefits of both microprocessors and contactless cards. In addition to contactless microprocessor-based smart cards, it also sells products that are based on other card technologies. The Company has focused on the development of its technologies and its products based on its technological platform that consists of smart cards, smart card readers, software tools and secure communication technology. As of December 31, 2012, it offers three lines of solutions, each of which constitutes a complete system, as well as components (such as smart cards and readers) that we sell to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), for incorporation into their own products. OTI�� three vertical markets include Payment Solutions, Petroleum Systems and SmartID Solutions. Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Markman Advisors]

  Public companies leveraging their patent portfolios, (aka "patent plays"), are getting the market's attention. Companies such as Vringo (VRNG), ParkerVision (PRKR), MGT Capital (MGT), Worlds Inc. (WDDD.OB) and others have presented trading opportunities due to their volatility while retaining the chance for a big payoff to those investors who stay the course. Yet there exist viable patent plays that are still undiscovered. Some of these so called "plays," which are not getting enough attention, are actually real companies making and selling real products or services in contrast to pure patent monetization companies. Some known examples are Single Touch Interactive (SITO.OB) and Blue Calypso (BCYP.OB). This article is focused on another one of these patent plays, On Track Innovations Ltd. (OTIV).

• [By Roberto Pedone]

   

   

  One under-$10 technology player that's starting to trend within range of triggering a major breakout trade is On Track Innovations (OTIV), which designs, develops and markets contactless microprocessor-based smart card solutions to customers in Africa, Europe, the Far East, the Americas and Israel. This stock has been red hot over the last three months, with shares up a whopping 134%.

  If you take a look at the chart for On Track Innovations, you'll notice that this stock has been trending sideways and consolidating over the last month and change, with shares moving between $2.70 on the downside and $3.74 on the upside. Shares of OTIV have now started to spike higher off some near-term support at $3 a share and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern.

  Traders should now look for long-biased trades in OTIV if it manages to break out above its 52-week high at $3.74 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 626,538 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then OTIV will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $4.50 to $5.50 a share.

  Traders can look to buy OTIV off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits just below some key near-term support levels at $3.20 or at $3 a share. One can also buy OTIV off strength once it starts to clear its 52-week high at $3.74 a share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Best Semiconductor Stocks To Own Right Now: Aeroflex Holding Corp (ARX)

Aeroflex Holding Corp. (Aeroflex Holding) is a provider of radio frequency (RF) and microwave integrated circuits, components and systems used in the design, development and maintenance of wireless communication systems. The Company�� solutions include microelectronic components and test and measurement equipment used by companies in the space, avionics and defense; commercial wireless communications, and medical and other markets. Its products include a range of RF, microwave and millimeter wave microelectronic components, integrated circuits (ICs), and analog and mixed-signal devices. It also manufactures a range of RF and microwave wireless radio and avionics test equipment and solutions particularly for the wireless, avionics and radio test markets. The Company operates in two segments: Aeroflex Microelectronics Solutions (AMS) and Aeroflex Test Solutions (ATS). In August 2010, it acquired Advanced Control Components. In September 2013, the Company announced the sale of its Aeroflex Test Equipment Services (ATES) business to Trescal Limited. In February 2014, Aeroflex Holding Corp announced the acquisition of Shenick Network Systems.

Aeroflex Microelectronic Solutions

AMS offers a range of microelectronics products and is a provider of specialty products for the space, avionics, defense, commercial wireless communications, medical and other markets. RadHard products are specifically designed to tolerate high radiation level environments, which otherwise can degrade electronic components. The Company principally operates on a fabless semiconductor manufacturing model, outsourcing virtually all front-end semiconductor fabrication activities to commercial foundries. AMS offers a range of complementary products that provide connectivity and computing functionality for applications. Its product portfolio includes RF, microwave and millimeter wave products, including discrete components, ICs, monolithic microwave ICs and multi-chip modules.

AMS designs and manu! factures application specific, analog and mixed-signal devices for use in medical, industrial and intelligent sensors. The Company�� AMS products are used in over 100 space, avionics and defense platforms, including the Wideband Global Satellite Communications satellites, the Geostationary Operational Environmental satellites, the Advanced Extremely High Frequency satellites, the Boeing 777 airliner's databus, the F-16's modular mission computer, the B-1 flight controls upgrade and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense program. Its AMS products are also used in wireless communications platforms, including WCDMA and LTE cellular base station systems, as well as point-to-point broadband radio applications. In the medical area, our products are used by two of the top four manufacturers of CT scan equipment.

AMS provides HiRel standard and custom integrated circuits and circuit card assembly for the aerospace, altitude avionics, medical, x-ray cargo scanners, critical transportation systems, nuclear power controls, global positioning systems (GPS) receivers, networking and telecommunication markets. AMS' HiRel products include transceivers, analog multiplexers, clock management generators, MSI logic products, battery electronics units, voltage regulators, high-speed power controllers, MIL-STD 1553 bus controllers, remote terminals, bus monitors, microcontrollers and microprocessors, RadHard Pulse Width Modulation Controllers, RadHard Resolver-to-Digital and memory modules. HiRel Microelectronics/ Semiconductors have a typical life cycle of 10-20 years.

AMS provides a set of standard and application specific RF/microwave diodes and semiconductor devices. Microwave semiconductor products offered include diodes, amplifiers, resistors, inductors, capacitors, switches, and integrated devices. RF and Microwave active components and subsystems offered include PIN diode-based microwave control components, variable attenuators, phase shifters, limiters, time delay units and Multi-Funct! ion Micro! wave assemblies. AMS offers resistor products, which include a variety of low and high reliability power surface mounted passive devices for the wireless infrastructure and defense markets with applications in isolators, circulators, single and multi-carrier power amplifiers and circuits. Passive components offered include attenuators, terminations, adapters, DC blocks, and other components for commercial, military and laboratory applications. Other products include power amplifiers, up and down converters, mixers, filters and micro-receivers operating to over 40 giga hertz (GHz). RF and Microwave components have a typical life cycle of 5-15 years. The Company�� motion control products provide complete and integrated motion control solutions for space (both military and commercial), military, avionics, and industrial customers. Its product line offerings include actuators and mechanisms, electronic controllers, slip rings and twist capsules, DC motors and Gimbal Systems. Motion control products have a typical life cycle of 10-20 years.

Aeroflex Test Solutions

ATS is a provider of a line of specialized test and measurement hardware and software products, primarily for the space, avionics, defense, commercial wireless communications and other markets. ATS products and their applications include wireless test equipment, which is used to develop and test handsets and base stations; military radio and PMR test equipment, which is used by radio manufacturers and military, police, fire, and emergency response units to test handheld radios; avionics test equipment, which is used in the design, manufacture and maintenance of electronics systems for aircraft; synthetic test equipment, which is used to test satellites and transmit / receive modules prior to launch and deployment, and general purpose test equipment, including spectrum analyzers and signal generators.

Wireless Test Equipment is used by wireless service providers and equipment manufacturers to test wireless ! handsets ! and base stations. The Company offers a range of cellular tests across a range of wireless standards and communication frequencies, including 2G and 3G, with particular capability in EDGE protocols, and the new 4G LTE/LTE(A) protocols. Products include a range of system, protocol, physical layer and parametric test solutions, such as the TM500 test mobile, RF synthesizers, digitizers and combiners, and application software. In addition, ATS provides PXI-based products which are modular scalable solutions for the handset manufacturing environment. Product applications include research and development, conformance, manufacturing/production, installation and commissioning, field service, and network optimization.

ATS Radio Test Equipment is used by radio manufacturers and military, police, fire and emergency response units to test handheld radio units. ATS provides TErrestrial Trunked Radio (TETRA), and Project 25 (P25), radio test equipment, addressing both mobile and repeater test applications. TETRA is a global standard for private mobile radio (PMR), systems used by emergency services, public transport and utilities. P25 is a standard for digital radio communications for use by federal, state, private, and local public safety agencies in North America. Its military communications testing systems are primarily used by the United States military to test complex voice and data frequency hopping radios and accessories. Military radio and PMR test equipment has a typical life cycle of 5-20 years.

Avionics test equipment is used in the design, manufacture, test and maintenance of commercial, civil and military airborne electronic systems, or avionics. ATS equipment provides the stimulus and signals necessary for certification, verification, fault finding and diagnosis of airborne systems on the ground. For civil and commercial aviation, it has test solutions for various transponder modes, communications frequencies, emergency locator transmitters, weather radars and GPS systems. F! or milita! ry aviation, it has test solutions for microwave landing systems, tactical air navigation, enhanced traffic alert and collision avoidance systems, various identification friend or foe, or IFF, transponder/interrogator modes and IFF monopulse antenna simulation. ATS also provides customized avionics test solutions to support manual and automatic test equipment for manufacturing, repair and ground support operations. Avionics test equipment has a typical life cycle of 8-15 years.

Synthetic test systems test several attributes through one box and can take multiple complex measurements simultaneously. ATS provides synthetic test environment that allows digital, analog, RF/microwave and power test of circuits, modules, subsystems and complete systems for commercial, military, and aerospace customers. ATS' STI 1000C+ and TRM 1000C products offer synthetic microwave test systems optimized for testing Transmit/Receive modules and satellite payloads in a factory setting. Its SMART^E and SMART^E 5300 products offer a modular approach for implementing multi-function configurable and reconfigurable test systems. Synthetic test solutions products have a typical life cycle of 10-15 years.

ATS offers a variety of general purpose test solutions including microwave test solutions, counters and power meters. ATS microwave test solutions cover frequency ranges from 1 megahertz (MHz) to 46 gigahertz (GHz), with various tracking, offset, continuous wave, modulated source, fault location, and group delay configuration options provided. ATS power meters are designed for field use, automated test equipment requirements and standard bench applications. General purpose test solutions have a typical life cycle of 4-7 years.

The Company Competes with Agilent Technologies, Honeywell, BAE Systems, Hittite Microwave Corporation, ILC / Data Devices Corporation, Microsemi, Anaren, Anite, Anritsu, Rohde & Schwarz, Spirent and National Instruments.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Jake L'Ecuyer]

  Leading and Lagging Sectors
  In trading on Tuesday, technology shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 0.12 percent. Leading the sector was strength from Aeroflex Holding (NYSE: ARX) and Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ). Cyclical consumer goods & services shares declined around 0.71 percent in Tuesday's trading.

• [By Rich Smith]

  The Department of Defense issued some 22 separate contract awards Thursday, totaling just under $1 billion in combined value. Not all of them went to publicly traded defense contractors, of course, but enough of them did to be worth mentioning. Here are a few of the lucky winners:

Best Semiconductor Stocks To Own Right Now: Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc (ASX)

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. is principally engaged in the manufacture, assembly, processing, testing and distribution of integrated circuits (ICs). The Company provides semiconductor packaging and testing services, including plastic leaded chip carriers (PLCCs), quad flat packages (QFPs) and flip chip packaging technology, among others, which are applied in the manufacture of household electrical appliances, communication devices, automobile components, personal computers, set top boxes, servers, memory integrated circuits (ICs), mobile phones, digital cameras, game consoles, projectors, high definition (HD) televisions, wireless communication network products and power management ICs, among others. The Company operates its businesses primarily in Taiwan, Europe and the Americas. In August 2010, the Company acquired a 100% interest in EEMS Test Singapore.

The Company is focused on packaging and testing logic semiconductors. The Company offers its customers turnkey services, which consist of packaging, testing and direct shipment of semiconductors to end users designated by its customers. The Company�� global base of over 200 customers includes semiconductor companies across a range of end use applications, including Altera Corporation, ATI Technologies, Inc., Broadcom Corporation, Cambridge Silicon Radio Limited and Microsoft Corporation. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company�� packaging revenues accounted for 77.7% of its net revenues and its testing revenues accounted for 20.1% of its net revenues.

Packaging Services

The Company offers a range of package types to meet the requirements of its customers, with a focus on packaging solutions. Within its portfolio of package types, the Company focuses on the packaging of semiconductors. These include advanced leadframe-based package types, such as quad flat package, thin quad flat package, bump chip carrier and quad flat no-lead package, and package types based on substrates, such a! s flip-chip ball grid array (BGA) and other BGA types, as well as other packages, such as wafer-bumping products. Leadframe-based packages are packaged by connecting the die, using wire bonders, to the leadframe with gold wire. The Company�� leadframe-based packages include quad flat package (QFP)/ thin quad flat package (TQFP), quad flat no-lead package (QFN)/microchip carrier (MCC), advanced quad flat no-lead package (AQFN), bump chip carrier (BCC), small outline plastic package (SOP)/thin small outline plastic package (TSOP), small outline plastic j-bend package (SOJ), plastic leaded chip carrier (PLCC) and plastic dual in-line package (PDIP). Substrate-based packages employ the BGA design, which utilizes a substrate rather than a leadframe. It also assembles system-in-a-package products, which involve the integration of more than one chip into the same package. The Company�� substrate-based packages include Plastic BGA, Cavity Down BGA, Stacked-Die BGA, Flip-Chip BGA and land grid array (LGA).

The Company�� wafer-level packaging products include wafer level chip scale package (aCSP) and advanced wafer level package (aWLP). The Company offers module assembly services, which combine one or more packaged semiconductors with other components in an integrated module to enable functionality, typically using surface mount technology (SMT) machines and other machinery and equipment for system-level assembly. End use applications for modules include cellular phones, personal digital assistant (PDAs), wireless local area network (LAN) applications, bluetooth applications, camera modules, automotive applications and toys.

The Company provides module assembly services primarily at its facilities in Korea for radio frequency and power amplifier modules used in wireless communications and automotive applications. Interconnect materials connect the input/output on the semiconductor dies to the printed circuit board. Interconnect materials include substrate, which is a multi-layer m! iniature ! printed circuit board. The Company produces substrates for use in its packaging operations.

Testing Services

The Company provides a range of semiconductor testing services, including front-end engineering testing, wafer probing, final testing of logic/mixed-signal/radio frequency (RF) and memory semiconductors and other test-related services. The Company provides front-end engineering testing services, including customized software development, electrical design validation, and reliability and failure analysis. The Company provides final testing services for a variety of memory products, such as static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), single-bit erasable programmable read-only memory semiconductors and flash memory semiconductors.

The Company provides a range of additional test-related services, including burn-in testing, module sip testing, dry pack, tape and reel, and electric interface board and mechanical test tool design. The Company offers drop shipment services for shipment of semiconductors directly to end users designated by its customers.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Seth Jayson]

  Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (NYSE: ASX  ) is expected to report Q2 earnings around July 7. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

• [By David Dittman]

  Crown Resorts is a buy all the way up to USD16.50 on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) using the symbol CWN and on the US over-the-counter (OTC) market using the symbol CWLDF.

• [By Jeff Reeves]

  Next Page

  Best Stocks to Buy for Around $5: Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX)

  Advanced Semiconductor Engineering�(ASX) builds and distributes integrated circuits and other electronics. While that�� not as sexy as other chipmakers that play to mobile, it�� still a good business, considering the general demand for microchips in everything from cars to computers to TVs.

Best Semiconductor Stocks To Own Right Now: Broadcom Corporation(BRCM)

Broadcom Corporation designs and develops semiconductors for wired and wireless communications. It provides a portfolio of system-on-a-chip (SoC) and software solutions for the manufacturers of computing and networking equipment, digital entertainment and broadband access products, and mobile devices, which enable the delivery of voice, video, data, and multimedia content to the home, office, and mobile environment. Its broadband communications products include cable modem SoCs; femtocell SoCs; MPEG/AVC/VC-1 encoders and transcoders; xDSL, passive optical network, and cable modem customer premises equipment and central office solutions; powerline networking SoCs; digital cable, direct broadcast satellite, terrestrial, and Internet protocol (IP) set-top box integrated receiver demodulators; high definition television and standard definition TV SoCs; and Blu-ray disc SoCs. The company?s mobile and wireless products comprise Wi-Fi and Bluetooth SoCs, wireless connectivity com bo chips, global positioning system SoCs, multimedia processors, applications processors, power management units, VoIP SoCs, mobile TV SoCs, and near field communications tags. Its infrastructure and networking products include Ethernet copper transceivers, Ethernet controllers and switches, backplane and optical front-end physical layer devices, security processors and adapters, and broadband processors. The company markets and sells its products through direct sales force, distributors, and manufacturers? representatives in the United States, as well as through regional offices, and a network of independent distributors and representatives in Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By FinanceGuru]

  Now that Broadcom (BRCM) has finally thrown in the towel on its cellular business after years of failing to succeed, the company is trying to shop around the division. The company's management team claims that the product pipeline that was under development had significant technical merit, but that the economics of running that business just couldn't support a $700 million-a-year operating expense run rate. That said, if Broadcom can successfully shop the business, Apple (AAPL) seems the most likely buyer.

• [By Chris Neiger]

  Today, chipset maker Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM  ) introduced�the first 5G WiFi chip that can be used in�PCs, notebooks, tablets, and smartphones�on the new�802.11ac wireless standard.

• [By Eric Volkman]

  Net profit doubled, and then some, for Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM  ) in its first fiscal quarter. The just-released earnings report showed that revenue came in at $1.95 billion, up from the $1.77 billion in the same period the previous year. Net profit zoomed ahead to $191 million ($0.33 per diluted share) from Q1 2012's $88 million ($0.15).

• [By Iampat]

  Shares of Broadcom (BRCM) have been controlling higher following the time when the organization reported that it would strip itself of its cellular baseband program. One worry that keeps on looming over the organization is extensive danger to its low-end integration business. Then again, on the off chance that we work through the math here, it's really clear that Broadcom is making the "right" exchange off here.

Best Semiconductor Stocks To Own Right Now: ARM Holdings PLC (ARMH)

ARM Holdings plc (ARM), incorporated on October 16, 1990, designs microprocessors, physical intellectual property (IP) and related technology and software, and sells development tools. As of December 31, 2012, the Company operated in three business segments: the Processor Division (PD), the Physical IP Division (PIPD) and the System Design Division (SDD). ARM licenses and sells its technology and products to international electronics companies, which in turn manufacture, markets and sells microprocessors, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and application-specific standard processors (ASSPs) based on ARM�� technology to systems companies for incorporation into a range of end products. It also licenses and sells development tools directly to systems companies and provides support services to its licensees, systems companies and other systems designers.

ARM processor architecture and physical IP is used in embedded microprocessor applications, including cellular phones, digital televisions, mobile computers and personal computer peripherals, smart cards and microcontrollers. ARM�� principal geographic markets are Europe, the United States and Asia Pacific. ARM�� product offering includes microprocessor Cores: RISC microprocessor cores, including specific functions, such as video and graphics IP and on-chip fabric IP; embedded software; physical IP; development tools, and support and maintenance services.

Processor Division

The PD encompasses those resources that are centered on microprocessor cores, including specific functions, such as graphics IP, fabric IP, embedded software IP and configurable digital signal processing (DSP) IP. Service revenues consist of design consulting services and revenues from support, maintenance and training.

Physical IP Division

The PIPD is focused on building blocks for translation of a circuit design into actual silicon. During the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company�� total av! erage PIPD headcount was 557. ARM is a provider of physical IP components for the design and manufacture of integrated circuits, including systems-on-chip (SoCs). ARM Artisan physical IP products include embedded memory, standard cell and input/output components. Artisan physical IP also includes a limited portfolio of analog and mixed-signal products. ARM�� physical IP components are developed for a range of process geometries ranging from 20 nanometer - 250 nanometer. ARM licenses its products to customers for the design and manufacture of integrated circuits used in complex, high-volume applications, such as portable computing devices, communication systems, cellular phones, microcontrollers, consumer multimedia products, automotive electronics, personal computers and workstations and many others.

ARM�� embedded memory components include random access memories, read only memories and register files. These memories are provided in the form of a configurable memory compiler, which allows the customer to generate the appropriate configuration for the given application. ARM�� memory components include many configurable features, such as power-down modes, low-voltage data retention and fully static operation, as well as different transistor options to trade off performance and power. In addition, ARM�� memory components include built-in test interfaces that support the industry test methodologies and tools. ARM memory components also offer redundant storage elements.

ARM�� memory components are designed to enable the chip designer maximum flexibility to achieve the optimum power, performance, and density trade-off. ARM offers standard cell components that are optimized for high performance, high density or ultra high density. ARM logic products deliver optimal performance, power and area when building ARM Processors, Graphics, Video and Fabric IP along with general SoC subsystem implementation. ARM delivers physical interface for a range of DDR SDRAM (double-data rate s! ynchronou! s dynamic random-access memory) applications ranging from mission critical applications to low-power memory sub-systems. Silicon on Insulator (SOI) products is an alternative methodology to traditional semiconductor fabrication techniques.

System Design Division

The SDD is focused on the tools and models used to create and debug software and system-on-chip (SoC) designs. ARM�� software development tools help a software design engineer deliver products right the first time. Engineers use these tools in the design and deployment of code, from applications running on open operating systems right through to low-level firmware. The ARM Development Studio is a hardware components that allow the software designer to connect to a real target system and control the system for the purposes of finding errors in the software. The ARM DSTREAM unit allows the software developer to control the software running on the prototype product and examine the internal state of the prototype product. ARM Development Boards are ideal systems for prototyping ARM-based products. The ARM Microcontroller Development Kit supports ARM-based microcontrollers and 8051-based microcontrollers from companies, such as Analog Devices, Atmel, Freescale, Fujitsu, NXP, Samsung, Sharp, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments and Toshiba. The ARM Microcontroller Development Kit is used by developers who are building products and writing software using standard off-the-shelf microcontrollers.

The ARM Microprocessor Families

ARM architecture processors offers a range of performance options in the ARM7 family, ARM9 family, ARM11 family, ARM Cortex family and ARM SecurCore family. The ARM architecture gives systems designers a choice of processor cores at different performance/price points. The ARM7 offers 32-bit architecture capable of operating from 8/16-bit memory on an 8/16-bit bus through the implementation of the Thumb instruction set. The ARM9 family consists of a range of microprocessors in ! the 150-2! 50MHz range. Each processor has been designed for a specific application or function, such as an application processor for a feature phone or running a wireless fidelity (WiFi) protocol stack. The ARM9 family consists of a range of microprocessors in the 150-250 megahertz range. The ARM11 family consists of a range of microprocessors in the 300-600 megahertz range. ARM Cortex family is ARM�� family of processor cores based on version 7 of the ARM Architecture. The family is split into three series: A Series, A Series and M Series.

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By G. A. Chester]

  LONDON -- There are things to love and loathe about most companies. Today, I'm going to tell you about three things to loathe about�ARM Holdings� (LSE: ARM  ) (NASDAQ: ARMH  ) .

• [By David O��ara]

  ARM Holdings' (LSE: ARM  ) (NASDAQ: ARMH  )
  ARM shares have soared off the back of the smartphone and tablet boom. In the last five years, the shares are up almost ninefold.

• [By Steve Heller]

  Filling the void
  When Intel developed its x86 architecture, raw computing power was the primary objective. You can think of Intel's x86 architecture as the equivalent of an American-made muscle car of the 1960s -- a powerful, yet inefficient gas guzzler. This is contrary to chips based on ARM Holdings' (NASDAQ: ARMH  ) architecture, which are more like your eco-friendly fuel-efficient vehicles.

Best Semiconductor Stocks To Own Right Now: Sunedison Inc (SUNE)

SunEdison Inc, formerly MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc., incorporated on October 1, 1984, is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of silicon wafers. The Company is a developer and seller of photovoltaic energy solutions. Through Solar Materials and Solar Energy (SunEdison), it is a developer of solar energy projects. The Company operates in two segments: semiconductor materials and solar energy. The Company�� Solar Energy segment includes the operations of its old Solar Materials segment, as well as its SunEdison business. In the Semiconductor Materials, the Company offers wafers with a variety of features. The Company�� wafers vary in size, surface features, composition, purity levels, crystal properties and electrical properties.

Semiconductor Materials

The Company�� monocrystalline wafers for use in semiconductor applications range in size from 100 millimeter to 300 millimeter and are round in shape for semiconductor customers because of the nature of their processing equipment. Its wafers are used as the starting material for the manufacture of various types of semiconductor devices, including microprocessor, memory, logic and power devices. In turn, these semiconductor devices are used in computers, cellular phones and other mobile electronic devices, automobiles and other consumer and industrial products. Its monocrystalline wafers for semiconductor applications include four general categories of wafers: prime, epitaxial, test/monitor and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) wafers.

The Company�� prime wafer is a polished, pure wafer with an ultraflat and ultraclean surface. The Company�� epitaxial (epi), wafers consist of a thin silicon layer grown on the polished surface of the wafer. Typically, the epitaxial layer has different electrical properties from the underlying wafer. This provides customers with isolation between circuit elements than a polished wafer. Its AEGIS product is designed for certain specialized applications requiring high resis! tivity epitaxial wafers and its MDZ product feature. The AEGIS wafer includes a thin epitaxial layer grown on a standard starting wafer. The AEGIS wafer�� thin epitaxial layer eliminates harmful defects on the surface of the wafer, thereby allowing device manufacturers to increase yields. The Company supplies test/monitor wafers to its customers for use in testing semiconductor fabrication lines and processes. An SOI wafer is a different starting material for the chip making process.

Solar Energy

The Company�� Solar Energy segment provides solar energy services that integrate the design, installation, financing, monitoring, operations and maintenance portions of the downstream solar market to provide a solar energy service to its customers. As of December 31, 2012, SunEdison interconnected over 675 solar power systems representing 989 megawatt of solar energy generating capacity. As of December 31, 2012, SunEdison had 73 megawatt of projects under construction and 2.6 gigawatts in pipeline. In support of its downstream solar business, its Solar Energy segment manufactures polysilicon, silicon wafers and solar modules. Additionally, its Solar Energy segment will sell solar modules to third parties in the event the opportunity aligns with itsinternal needs. It provides its downstream customers with a way to purchase renewable energy by delivering solar power under long-term power purchase arrangements with customers or feed-in tariff arrangements with government entities and utilities. Its SunEdison business is dependent upon government subsidies, including United States federal incentive tax credits, state-sponsored energy credits and foreign feed-in tariffs. The Company�� solar wafers are used as the starting material for crystalline solar cells.

The Company competes with Shin-Etsu Handotai, SUMCO, Siltronic and LG Siltron, SunPower Corporation, First Solar, Inc., Enerparc, Sharp Corporation (Recurrent Energy), Phoenix Solar, BELECTRIC, JUWI Solar Gmbh, and S! olar City! .

Advisors' Opinion:

• [By Paul Ausick]

  Another possible target is the solar energy division of SunEdison Inc. (NYSE: SUNE). The company said last week that it would be spinning off its semiconductor business into a separate company next year. In the second quarter of this year the semiconductor segment provided about 60% of SunEdison�� total revenues of $401.3 million. But the company�� solar business has historically provided most of the revenues and could be both a target as operating losses in the solar energy segment continue.

• [By Lauren Pollock]

  SunEdison Inc.(SUNE) said unit volumes in its semiconductor business are expected to be below prior expectations for the fourth quarter, due to continued market weakness, while pricing remains about flat. The chip and solar technology company also said it has decided to keep additional solar projects on its balance sheet in the fourth quarter rather than sell them, in order to retain more long-term project value. Shares slid 8.1% to $11.75 premarket.

• [By Richard Stavros]

  Although these developments bode well for the sector, there is still concern that it is overvalued. First Solar Inc (NSDQ: FSLR), SunEdison Inc (NYSE: SUNE), and even electric car company Tesla Motors Inc (NSDQ: TSLA), to name a few, have seen stellar appreciation in their stock values.